Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 05 2020 8099 38881 253 61 620 1024
December 06 2020 8149 39004 254 62 586 967
December 07 2020 8178 39102 254 63 615 928
December 08 2020 8207 39214 257 63 546 871
December 09 2020 8270 39342 257 64 514 791
December 10 2020 8326 39458 257 65 536 763
December 11 2020 8369 39581 260 65 515 806
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 3.4 7.2% 37 0.32% 48 0.42%
10-19 3 5.6 12.6% 65 0.48% 88 0.65%
20-29 9 12.0 26.8% 138 0.66% 221 1.06%
30-39 8 8.9 18.6% 96 0.71% 144 1.06%
40-49 5 5.4 11.1% 57 0.54% 92 0.88%
50-59 6 6.3 12.6% 65 0.52% 102 0.81%
60-69 2 3.1 7% 36 0.31% 66 0.57%
70+ 7 2.4 4.1% 21 0.2% 45 0.43%
All ages 43 47.1 100% 515 0.49% 806 0.77%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 05 2020 5140 23414 145 55 685 965
December 06 2020 5185 23476 147 55 655 930
December 07 2020 5218 23536 149 55 687 914
December 08 2020 5249 23588 151 57 714 873
December 09 2020 5277 23648 152 57 679 822
December 10 2020 5314 23878 153 58 648 784
December 11 2020 5373 23956 155 57 579 842
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 2.6 4.5% 26 0.34% 38 0.49%
10-19 9 4.0 8.1% 47 0.56% 85 1.01%
20-29 7 7.6 17.8% 103 1.45% 137 1.93%
30-39 13 7.3 18.5% 107 1.27% 146 1.74%
40-49 16 8.0 17.4% 101 1.3% 150 1.93%
50-59 7 7.1 12.8% 74 0.76% 109 1.12%
60-69 2 4.3 8.8% 51 0.61% 71 0.84%
70+ 4 5.1 12.1% 70 0.98% 106 1.49%
All ages 59 46.0 100% 579 0.9% 842 1.3%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 05 2020 3802 15697 156 40 395 590
December 06 2020 3844 15737 156 47 379 594
December 07 2020 3854 15768 157 47 389 547
December 08 2020 3870 15793 159 47 312 525
December 09 2020 3905 15853 162 46 325 498
December 10 2020 3931 15912 164 46 312 466
December 11 2020 3964 16010 167 49 314 499
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.6 4.1% 13 0.24% 24 0.44%
10-19 2 2.6 8.9% 28 0.52% 42 0.77%
20-29 4 3.7 13.7% 43 0.95% 65 1.44%
30-39 4 4.7 15% 47 0.87% 70 1.29%
40-49 8 5.3 14.6% 46 0.92% 69 1.39%
50-59 6 5.7 17.2% 54 0.8% 76 1.12%
60-69 4 2.9 11.8% 37 0.58% 68 1.07%
70+ 5 3.6 14.6% 46 0.73% 85 1.34%
All ages 33 30.0 100% 314 0.69% 499 1.1%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 05 2020 8641 41604 181 39 990 1354
December 06 2020 8677 41807 182 40 916 1337
December 07 2020 8706 41889 182 40 893 1305
December 08 2020 8833 42075 192 42 927 1333
December 09 2020 8908 42369 195 42 897 1257
December 10 2020 8948 42571 202 42 861 1187
December 11 2020 9015 42725 205 42 889 1202
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 -1 2.7 4.2% 37 0.31% 45 0.38%
10-19 7 8.1 11.8% 105 0.63% 145 0.88%
20-29 13 13.0 19.7% 175 0.82% 230 1.08%
30-39 6 9.3 16.2% 144 1.06% 192 1.41%
40-49 10 9.6 13.8% 123 0.9% 160 1.18%
50-59 13 10.9 15.5% 138 0.97% 184 1.3%
60-69 8 6.3 10.7% 95 0.67% 125 0.88%
70+ 11 5.7 8.1% 72 0.55% 121 0.93%
All ages 67 65.6 100% 889 0.75% 1202 1.02%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 05 2020 28947 278814 845 104 2957 4293
December 06 2020 29053 279749 850 104 2686 4187
December 07 2020 29303 280474 855 104 2891 4297
December 08 2020 29450 280669 866 107 2607 3695
December 09 2020 29616 281148 883 108 2380 3626
December 10 2020 29864 282086 887 109 2375 3497
December 11 2020 30032 282782 897 112 2432 3620
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 10 10.7 4.7% 115 0.19% 184 0.31%
10-19 29 28.1 14.1% 343 0.48% 481 0.68%
20-29 44 47.9 22.8% 554 0.53% 804 0.77%
30-39 22 30.9 16.6% 404 0.53% 595 0.78%
40-49 29 26.3 13.8% 335 0.51% 513 0.78%
50-59 5 25.6 11.5% 280 0.43% 437 0.67%
60-69 17 17.9 8.8% 213 0.39% 300 0.55%
70+ 12 15.9 7.7% 188 0.38% 306 0.62%
All ages 168 203.1 100% 2432 0.44% 3620 0.66%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 05 2020 409386 2188949 18126 3702 39944 58217
December 06 2020 412177 2196722 18216 3719 37640 57501
December 07 2020 414332 2202473 18286 3738 38495 56561
December 08 2020 418446 2207950 18500 3806 37576 54473
December 09 2020 422065 2216057 18715 3887 37364 52623
December 10 2020 426099 2224578 18875 3944 38864 51562
December 11 2020 429957 2231765 19020 3991 38644 54120
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 163 173.1 4.6% 1775 0.28% 2465 0.38%
10-19 409 403.6 11% 4268 0.56% 5988 0.79%
20-29 626 596.1 16.7% 6452 0.85% 8995 1.19%
30-39 634 579.6 16.4% 6342 0.84% 8674 1.15%
40-49 561 517.1 14.5% 5615 0.8% 7814 1.12%
50-59 571 566.3 15.3% 5909 0.72% 8258 1.01%
60-69 455 410.9 11.3% 4379 0.58% 6154 0.81%
70+ 439 382.1 10.1% 3904 0.61% 5772 0.9%
All ages 3858 3628.9 100% 38644 0.66% 54120 0.93%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
77 64.7 105.6 47.1 77.1 28.5%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
130.2 46 51.7 33.9%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
110.3 30 44.6 32.8%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
101.7 87.6 108.1 65.6 98 25.9%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
66.2 67.7 77.4 203.1 354.7 23.3%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
93 79.1 118.8 3628.9 4209.1 33.1%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

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La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 3.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.53 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-01 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3615"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red