Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 05 2020 | 8099 | 38881 | 253 | 61 | 620 | 1024 |
| December 06 2020 | 8149 | 39004 | 254 | 62 | 586 | 967 |
| December 07 2020 | 8178 | 39102 | 254 | 63 | 615 | 928 |
| December 08 2020 | 8207 | 39214 | 257 | 63 | 546 | 871 |
| December 09 2020 | 8270 | 39342 | 257 | 64 | 514 | 791 |
| December 10 2020 | 8326 | 39458 | 257 | 65 | 536 | 763 |
| December 11 2020 | 8369 | 39581 | 260 | 65 | 515 | 806 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.4 | 7.2% | 37 | 0.32% | 48 | 0.42% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 5.6 | 12.6% | 65 | 0.48% | 88 | 0.65% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 12.0 | 26.8% | 138 | 0.66% | 221 | 1.06% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 8.9 | 18.6% | 96 | 0.71% | 144 | 1.06% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 5.4 | 11.1% | 57 | 0.54% | 92 | 0.88% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 6.3 | 12.6% | 65 | 0.52% | 102 | 0.81% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.1 | 7% | 36 | 0.31% | 66 | 0.57% |
| 70+ | 7 | 2.4 | 4.1% | 21 | 0.2% | 45 | 0.43% |
| All ages | 43 | 47.1 | 100% | 515 | 0.49% | 806 | 0.77% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 05 2020 | 5140 | 23414 | 145 | 55 | 685 | 965 |
| December 06 2020 | 5185 | 23476 | 147 | 55 | 655 | 930 |
| December 07 2020 | 5218 | 23536 | 149 | 55 | 687 | 914 |
| December 08 2020 | 5249 | 23588 | 151 | 57 | 714 | 873 |
| December 09 2020 | 5277 | 23648 | 152 | 57 | 679 | 822 |
| December 10 2020 | 5314 | 23878 | 153 | 58 | 648 | 784 |
| December 11 2020 | 5373 | 23956 | 155 | 57 | 579 | 842 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.6 | 4.5% | 26 | 0.34% | 38 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 4.0 | 8.1% | 47 | 0.56% | 85 | 1.01% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 7.6 | 17.8% | 103 | 1.45% | 137 | 1.93% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 7.3 | 18.5% | 107 | 1.27% | 146 | 1.74% |
| 40-49 | 16 | 8.0 | 17.4% | 101 | 1.3% | 150 | 1.93% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 7.1 | 12.8% | 74 | 0.76% | 109 | 1.12% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 4.3 | 8.8% | 51 | 0.61% | 71 | 0.84% |
| 70+ | 4 | 5.1 | 12.1% | 70 | 0.98% | 106 | 1.49% |
| All ages | 59 | 46.0 | 100% | 579 | 0.9% | 842 | 1.3% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 05 2020 | 3802 | 15697 | 156 | 40 | 395 | 590 |
| December 06 2020 | 3844 | 15737 | 156 | 47 | 379 | 594 |
| December 07 2020 | 3854 | 15768 | 157 | 47 | 389 | 547 |
| December 08 2020 | 3870 | 15793 | 159 | 47 | 312 | 525 |
| December 09 2020 | 3905 | 15853 | 162 | 46 | 325 | 498 |
| December 10 2020 | 3931 | 15912 | 164 | 46 | 312 | 466 |
| December 11 2020 | 3964 | 16010 | 167 | 49 | 314 | 499 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.6 | 4.1% | 13 | 0.24% | 24 | 0.44% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 2.6 | 8.9% | 28 | 0.52% | 42 | 0.77% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 3.7 | 13.7% | 43 | 0.95% | 65 | 1.44% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 4.7 | 15% | 47 | 0.87% | 70 | 1.29% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 5.3 | 14.6% | 46 | 0.92% | 69 | 1.39% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 5.7 | 17.2% | 54 | 0.8% | 76 | 1.12% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.9 | 11.8% | 37 | 0.58% | 68 | 1.07% |
| 70+ | 5 | 3.6 | 14.6% | 46 | 0.73% | 85 | 1.34% |
| All ages | 33 | 30.0 | 100% | 314 | 0.69% | 499 | 1.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 05 2020 | 8641 | 41604 | 181 | 39 | 990 | 1354 |
| December 06 2020 | 8677 | 41807 | 182 | 40 | 916 | 1337 |
| December 07 2020 | 8706 | 41889 | 182 | 40 | 893 | 1305 |
| December 08 2020 | 8833 | 42075 | 192 | 42 | 927 | 1333 |
| December 09 2020 | 8908 | 42369 | 195 | 42 | 897 | 1257 |
| December 10 2020 | 8948 | 42571 | 202 | 42 | 861 | 1187 |
| December 11 2020 | 9015 | 42725 | 205 | 42 | 889 | 1202 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | -1 | 2.7 | 4.2% | 37 | 0.31% | 45 | 0.38% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 8.1 | 11.8% | 105 | 0.63% | 145 | 0.88% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 13.0 | 19.7% | 175 | 0.82% | 230 | 1.08% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 9.3 | 16.2% | 144 | 1.06% | 192 | 1.41% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 9.6 | 13.8% | 123 | 0.9% | 160 | 1.18% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 10.9 | 15.5% | 138 | 0.97% | 184 | 1.3% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 6.3 | 10.7% | 95 | 0.67% | 125 | 0.88% |
| 70+ | 11 | 5.7 | 8.1% | 72 | 0.55% | 121 | 0.93% |
| All ages | 67 | 65.6 | 100% | 889 | 0.75% | 1202 | 1.02% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 05 2020 | 28947 | 278814 | 845 | 104 | 2957 | 4293 |
| December 06 2020 | 29053 | 279749 | 850 | 104 | 2686 | 4187 |
| December 07 2020 | 29303 | 280474 | 855 | 104 | 2891 | 4297 |
| December 08 2020 | 29450 | 280669 | 866 | 107 | 2607 | 3695 |
| December 09 2020 | 29616 | 281148 | 883 | 108 | 2380 | 3626 |
| December 10 2020 | 29864 | 282086 | 887 | 109 | 2375 | 3497 |
| December 11 2020 | 30032 | 282782 | 897 | 112 | 2432 | 3620 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 10.7 | 4.7% | 115 | 0.19% | 184 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 29 | 28.1 | 14.1% | 343 | 0.48% | 481 | 0.68% |
| 20-29 | 44 | 47.9 | 22.8% | 554 | 0.53% | 804 | 0.77% |
| 30-39 | 22 | 30.9 | 16.6% | 404 | 0.53% | 595 | 0.78% |
| 40-49 | 29 | 26.3 | 13.8% | 335 | 0.51% | 513 | 0.78% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 25.6 | 11.5% | 280 | 0.43% | 437 | 0.67% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 17.9 | 8.8% | 213 | 0.39% | 300 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 12 | 15.9 | 7.7% | 188 | 0.38% | 306 | 0.62% |
| All ages | 168 | 203.1 | 100% | 2432 | 0.44% | 3620 | 0.66% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 05 2020 | 409386 | 2188949 | 18126 | 3702 | 39944 | 58217 |
| December 06 2020 | 412177 | 2196722 | 18216 | 3719 | 37640 | 57501 |
| December 07 2020 | 414332 | 2202473 | 18286 | 3738 | 38495 | 56561 |
| December 08 2020 | 418446 | 2207950 | 18500 | 3806 | 37576 | 54473 |
| December 09 2020 | 422065 | 2216057 | 18715 | 3887 | 37364 | 52623 |
| December 10 2020 | 426099 | 2224578 | 18875 | 3944 | 38864 | 51562 |
| December 11 2020 | 429957 | 2231765 | 19020 | 3991 | 38644 | 54120 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 163 | 173.1 | 4.6% | 1775 | 0.28% | 2465 | 0.38% |
| 10-19 | 409 | 403.6 | 11% | 4268 | 0.56% | 5988 | 0.79% |
| 20-29 | 626 | 596.1 | 16.7% | 6452 | 0.85% | 8995 | 1.19% |
| 30-39 | 634 | 579.6 | 16.4% | 6342 | 0.84% | 8674 | 1.15% |
| 40-49 | 561 | 517.1 | 14.5% | 5615 | 0.8% | 7814 | 1.12% |
| 50-59 | 571 | 566.3 | 15.3% | 5909 | 0.72% | 8258 | 1.01% |
| 60-69 | 455 | 410.9 | 11.3% | 4379 | 0.58% | 6154 | 0.81% |
| 70+ | 439 | 382.1 | 10.1% | 3904 | 0.61% | 5772 | 0.9% |
| All ages | 3858 | 3628.9 | 100% | 38644 | 0.66% | 54120 | 0.93% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 64.7 | 105.6 | 47.1 | 77.1 | 28.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130.2 | 46 | 51.7 | 33.9% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110.3 | 30 | 44.6 | 32.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101.7 | 87.6 | 108.1 | 65.6 | 98 | 25.9% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66.2 | 67.7 | 77.4 | 203.1 | 354.7 | 23.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 79.1 | 118.8 | 3628.9 | 4209.1 | 33.1% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 3.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.53 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-01 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3615"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges